Policymaking during crises and emergencies

Conclusions The implementation of continual policy evaluation requires an almost entirely new policy infrastructure in Australia, as well as contributions of knowledge, data, and methods from an interdisciplinary cohort of researchers, policymakers, and industry partners. However, successful implementation of continual evaluation has the potential to revolutionise the way in which policy is formulated and implemented, leading to benefits for the entire Australian population. In the future, it is envisaged that almost all policy reforms will be subject to rigorous and objective evaluation on an ongoing basis to ensure that Australians are guided towards the best possible outcomes. Moreover, continual policy evaluation should be viewed partly as a tool for understanding our society. As Nobel Prize winning economist Elinor Ostrom (2005) argues, to understand anything we need to learn what it does, how and why it works, how to create or modify it, and eventually how to convey that knowledge to others. Continual policy evaluation provides the tools by which we can better understand Australia, its people, and the way our society interacts. Policymaking during crises and emergencies Sometimes policymaking is in response to something urgent, like a crisis or natural disaster, and it is worth learning from emergency policymaking experience now so you can be better prepared in that moment. Below is a cheat sheet for urgent policy development, based on deep experience of policymakers who have had to actually deliver policy responses during real and dangerous crises. In the urgent moment So how does one deal with a situation where an issue has come up—the minister wants advice in two days. What is the best process—when the full process can’t be followed? How can the options be rapidly developed for urgent requests but still high enough quality and integrity to be effective? Given the higher risk of rapid response, how should urgent policy interventions be implemented so as to actively monitor and manage unintended consequences? There has increasingly been a mentality of “pick a winner” rather than providing options with urgent requests. This is dangerous as it removes the possibility of weighing up options that may be better, even when there are different risks or opportunities. Even if directed to explore only one option, you should provide options based on the best evidence available to you, for the best possible policy response and decision making in a crisis. Urgent policy preparation:

• Take the time to know your portfolio area more generally, so most topics don’t entirely surprise or scare you if and when they come up unexpectedly.

• Get clear on the request—no third hand chat. Gain access to the original requests or chat directly to the Minister’s office so you can be clear on the outcome, problem to be solved and the constraints or any direction from the Minister and their office.

• Take a little time to actually think about and through the process— it feels terrible but if it is a two day briefing, sign-out will be a day in most places. Organise time in the diaries of decision makers so there aren’t unnecessary delays.

• Consider who might be useful to talk to e.g. the institutional knowledge person, someone from the sector (if allowed to). Are there past reports that are relevant?

• Look at evidence, past reports, data, international literature reviews. Even if you only get an hour—something is better than nothing. What has the sector, the media, the public said about a topic?

• Pick up the phone to people that can help or have knowledge or experience to help inform your options or test your assumptions.

• Write a simple structure for the briefing, for example: what was asked, what we know about the situation, data, past reports etc, what are the broad options.

• Do a simple pros and cons table of options—noting risks, assumptions or other things that would need to be explored.

• Discuss the broad options, limitations on time, potential solutions or directions to explore further or better process or engagement or if required recommended option, map out steps to truly explore options (unless it really is a quick fix issue).

• Try to ensure any options chosen carry with them enough authority to rapidly deliver and pivot if or when things don’t quite work as hoped. The Adaptive Policy Lean Canvas might be a helpful framework to work through as you follow these steps through the policy preparation. Urgent policy navigation:

• Make sure any policy options chosen to be delivered are monitored, even lightly is better than not at all, to try to see what is working (or not), keeping an eye out for unintended consequences.

• Report regularly (sometimes daily is needed, depending on the emergency) on both the issue and the effectiveness of the policy response. This is not about trying to give good news, it is critical for decision makers to know as quickly as possible if a policy response is not working so they can try something else.

• Be prepared to change your advice based on new evidence, new insights and what is happening on the ground. Preparing in “peacetime” to ensure good policy in a crisis Good policy starts in peacetime. We hear all sorts of excuses from policy shops that they can’t be proactive, that there isn’t any or enough data, however there is no good reason to not prepare, because there are never perfect conditions for good policy. Some things you can do today to help you prepare for tomorrow include:

• Using AI to find meta analysis or recent literature reviews on key topics in a portfolio likely to come up. Having a good knowledge of what is happening overseas can be a good go to when looking for options quickly.

• Add relevant resources to a shared document for the whole team to contribute to, for ease of reference and reuse when needed.

• Conduct regular group exercises based on your portfolio. An old- fashioned environmental scan + gaming type session (e.g. what is wrong, what could go wrong) in addition to where we are going. Make it over nice coffee—two things at once.

• Identify what has been done before—ask people that have been around for a while, search political announcements for the last 20 years—what has been tried, what has failed etc.

• Have a 20 minute team competition to find the most innovative/ effective policy options to a problem within a portfolio. Winner gets a crazy cat picture or chocolate bar.

• Think ahead about in particular areas or organisations who would be good to engage with/ or co-design on particular policy areas.

• Identify what data is held in your organisation and your national statistical organisation might have (like the Australian Bureau of Statistics or Stats NZ) that relates to your portfolio? Who else might have relevant data? Meet data people and teams to talk about your challenges and likely issues, not just to find solutions but to build relationships and get them thinking ahead of time for when there is an urgent need. On this last point, it doesn’t need to be a big deal to meet another team. It takes probably an hour to arrange a meet and greet with a data team— allowing half an hour on the policy people saying what they are working on and half an hour for the data people to say what is possible. If data people know what the policy people are working on—they can have a think about what data or insights they have or could get, and can be active support for good policy. You simply need to make a little time to prioritise this kind of informal engagement to enable evidence-based policy.